With Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico already sparring, the Texas Senate race will offer this year’s most direct collision between the competing theories of populism that now dominate American politics.

Paxton is assailing Talarico with the cultural populism that the GOP has increasingly relied upon to cement its electoral coalition, especially since the rise of Donald Trump as the party’s national leader. Just as quickly, Talarico is lashing Paxton with arguments that reflect the economic populism that has ascended among Democrats during the Trump years.

Each of these messages has proved successful in recent campaigns around the country. But there’s no question that in red-leaning states such as Texas, Republican cultural arguments on issues such as immigration, crime, and transgender rights have consistently trumped Democratic claims that the GOP has favored billionaires and big corporations over average families.

Republicans insist that history will prove decisive again in Texas this year. “Texas will never elect someone who thinks God is nonbinary,” Republican Senator Ted Cruz declared in a social media post last week, referring to comments Talarico made as a state representative during a 2021 debate over transgender rights.

But Democrats are cautiously optimistic that with so many families now financially struggling, those GOP arguments may not prove as relevant this year. “There’s no doubt they are going to run the same culture war … and we’re going to run on the cost of living,” said Chuck Rocha, a longtime Democratic operative and adviser to Talarico. “And when gas is $4 a gallon, and folks can’t pay for daycare, that stuff just don’t resonate like it used to. They are going to talk about pronouns; we are going to talk about prices. They are going to talk about who is eating meat; we are going to talk about the price of meat.”

The combination of Paxton’s personal vulnerabilities and this year’s national headwinds for Republicans has almost all Texas observers expecting the most competitive major statewide race since Democrat Beto O’Rourke mounted an unexpectedly strong Senate challenge to Cruz in 2018. But the combination of the local headwinds for Democrats and Talarico’s personal vulnerabilities, causes many of those same analysts to conclude that Paxton remains the favorite. In Texas, “the Democratic brand is not in great shape,” said James Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas. “And Republicans have a lot of practice here running against Democrats.”

Cultural vs. economic appeals to voters

Once the general election was set after Paxton’s primary victory over Republican Sen. John Cornyn last week, each side wasted no time constructing the alternative frame they want Texas voters to view the choice through.

In his victory speech, Paxton auditioned a Trump-like succession of derisive nicknames for his opponent — including “Tofu Talarico” “low-T Talarico” and “Tala-freako” — all meant to portray the former seminarian as culturally alien. “My opponent is the most extreme radical the Democrats have ever nominated,” Paxton insisted, before describing Talarico as a supporter of “open borders,” “boys in girls’ sports,” “gender mutilation surgery performed on kids”; as hostile to oil and gas; and perhaps most insulting of all in Texas, “a vegan.” (“I have been eating barbecue since before Ken Paxton’s first indictment,” Talarico fired back.)

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