A populist will win the Texas Senate race. The question is, which one?

With Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico already sparring, the Texas Senate race will offer this year’s most direct collision between the competing theories of populism that now dominate American politics.

Paxton is assailing Talarico with the cultural populism that the GOP has increasingly relied upon to cement its electoral coalition, especially since the rise of Donald Trump as the party’s national leader. Just as quickly, Talarico is lashing Paxton with arguments that reflect the economic populism that has ascended among Democrats during the Trump years.

Each of these messages has proved successful in recent campaigns around the country. But there’s no question that in red-leaning states such as Texas, Republican cultural arguments on issues such as immigration, crime, and transgender rights have consistently trumped Democratic claims that the GOP has favored billionaires and big corporations over average families.

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